Investors commonly see emerging markets as an asset class that requires market timing. That it comes in and out of fashion like turtlenecks and corduroys – just a short-term fad. However, don’t look for reasons this latest investment trend will soon end up in the donation pile.
The global economy stands at the dawn of a new business cycle. We outline what it could mean for investors.
March payrolls beat consensus estimates by 256,000, the largest one month increase since August. High-frequency data suggests gains in April and May could be greater than 1,000,000.
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We stand for a legacy of expertise, focused on delivering strong, long-term results. Our name reflects our progressive product offerings and growing global presence as we continue to adapt to the needs of investors.
We believe the pandemic will continue to wreak havoc on parts of the economy through the first quarter of 2021. However, our above-consensus 2021 growth estimate may encourage risk taking in equity markets.
High-frequency mobility data from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank clearly shows that consumers are starting to limit activity in the face of a COVID-19 resurgence. This is a headwind to growth, but we believe that additional fiscal stimulus, an inventory replenishment cycle and high savings rates will buffer the near-term impact to the economy. As a greater percentage of the U.S. population becomes vaccinated through late spring, pent-up demand for forgone activities in the service economy should have a meaningful positive impact on 2021 growth. We are estimating U.S. real gross domestic product growth of 5% in 2021, versus the consensus estimate of 3.8%.
Source: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg, Ivy Investments. The Dallas Fed Mobility & Engagement indicator tracks geolocation data collected from mobile devices relative to their weekday average over January/February 2020. Dates shown are January 3, 2020 through November 28, 2020. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.
