Down but Not Out

02.19.21

Chart of the Week – Down but Not Out

European Union economic data surprises continue to outpace those in the United States.

A surprise beat in the German ZEW sentiment expectations gauge continued to increase the gap between EU and U.S. economic surprises. While current European conditions remain challenged with COVID-19-induced lockdowns, we expect the outlook to markedly improve as the vaccination rollout continues. The European economy is more cyclical in nature than the U.S., which should serve as a tailwind as developed economies reopen.

EU-U.S. Citibank Economic Surprise Index Spread

Source: Citibank, Bloomberg, Ivy Investments. The Citi Economic Surprise Indices measure data surprises relative to market expectations. A positive reading means that the data releases have been stronger than expected. Dates shown are February 17, 2020 through February 16, 2021. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.