Fiscal Support Rolls On

01.15.21

Chart of the Week – Fiscal Support Rolls On

Personal consumption has nearly made a full recovery from the onset of the 2020 recession. Unprecedented fiscal stimulus is responsible.

Spring 2020 stimulus bills included $730 billion in direct individual aid through one-time cash payments and increased unemployment benefits. In addition, $670 billion was allocated to the Paycheck Protection Program to keep consumers employed. While modestly smaller, a bill passed in December 2020, and another round of stimulus we think is coming in February 2021, should keep disposable income growing around trendline through spring. We believe this is one of the factors setting up the economy for strong growth beginning in the second quarter of 2021.

U.S. Disposable Personal Income
(9 mo. change from start of recession)

Chart Showing Consumer Spending During the Pandemic

Source: BEA, Macrobond. Dates shown are July, 1990 through October, 2020. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.