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The United States has been in a deflationary trend for almost 50 years. That may be about to change.
The importation of cheap goods from Japan, and then China, has driven a deceleration in the advance of goods prices. Although we believe we were already on the path of onshoring production of some goods, supply-chain problems amplified by COVID-19, notably personal protection equipment and medicine, have led to a change in tune. Many countries, including the United States, are increasingly looking for ways to onshore production intended for domestic consumption. Moving capacity back home, to a higher-cost labor pool, could finally reverse a long deflationary trend.
Source: US Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MacroBond. Dates shown are January 1972 through January 2019. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.
