2021 Global Outlook
Ivy Investments believes the path forward requires a disciplined approach that combines resilience and a reliance on the fundamentals of active investing.
Manufacturers are seeing order books increase at the highest rate since January 2004. A survey constructed to gauge manufacturing activity, the ISM Index, increased to 59.3 in October versus 55.4 a month earlier.
Inventory levels were low entering 2020 and were further depleted as the economy began to recover from COVID-19 lockdowns. Now, we believe they will be re-built. We see a positive inventory cycle through the remainder of the year, cushioning the blow of any services-related weakness due to a renewed surge in COVID-19 cases.
Source: Institute For Supply Management, Bloomberg, Ivy Investments. Dates shown are January 31, 2004 through October 31, 2020. Index of new orders above 50 indicates that new orders are increasing. Index of customer inventories above 50 indicates inventories are too high. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.