Partisan Control and Market Returns

09.25.20

Chart of the Week – Partisan Control and Market Returns

Does partisan control in Washington influence market returns? There is some evidence that it does.

Although polling data is beginning to tighten as we head toward November, betting markets continue to favor a clean sweep for the Democratic party. On average, S&P 500 returns have trailed most other partisan control scenarios with Democrats in charge. However, the 9.3% historical return under Democrat control is above the 9.1% average for the period.

Partisan Control, Average Annual S&P 500 Performance
(1933-2019, Excludes 2001-2002)
Chart Showing  Labor Situation
Chart Showing  Labor Situation

Source: Strategas Research. Data shown is from 1933 through 2019. Data excludes 2001-2002 due to Sen. Jeffords changing party and no other instances of Republican President, Republican House and Democratic Senate. In the chart, “D” stands for Democratic and “R” stands for Republican. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.