Presidential Election Goes Viral

10.23.20

Chart of the Week – Presidential Election Goes Viral

Polling data for the presidential election is leading us to believe the race is very close. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases may determine the outcome.

Historically, betting markets have predicted the outcome of a presidential election as well, or better than, polling data. This election, the odds of the Republican party holding on to the White House are highly correlated with the rise in COVID-19 cases. The month of October can make or break a presidential campaign, but the pandemic may elevate its importance.

New Cases vs. Betting Odds of GOP White House
Chart Showing New Cases vs. Betting Odds of GOP White House
Chart Showing New Cases vs. Betting Odds of GOP White House

Source: COVID Tracking Project, PredictIt, Bloomberg, Ivy Investments. Data shown is from April 1, 2020 through October 18, 2020. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.


The impact of COVID-19, and other infectious illness outbreaks that may arise in the future, could adversely affect the economies of many nations or the entire global economy, individual issuers and capital markets in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen. In addition, the impact of infectious illnesses in emerging market countries may be greater due to generally less established healthcare systems. Public health crises caused by the COVID-19 outbreak may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks in certain countries or globally. The duration of the COVID-19 outbreak and its effects cannot be determined with certainty.