2021 Global Outlook
Ivy Investments believes the path forward requires a disciplined approach that combines resilience and a reliance on the fundamentals of active investing.
The S&P 500 Index has predicted every U.S. Presidential election since 1984. If the market is up in the 3-months prior to election day, the incumbent has won.
Going back to 1928, the market has failed to predict the U.S. Presidential election only three times. As we moved into September, that narrative looked like it was playing out once again. However, that correlation broke-down in October. Rather than predicting a Trump win, the expectation of more fiscal stimulus from a Democratic sweep may be driving the market.
Source: PredictIt, Bloomberg, Ivy Investments. Data shown is from August 3, 2020 through October 26, 2020. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.