2021 Global Outlook
Ivy Investments believes the path forward requires a disciplined approach that combines resilience and a reliance on the fundamentals of active investing.
Spring stimulus is wearing off at a time when localities are considering additional lockdowns. Will another stimulus package arrive sooner than later?
U.S. personal income received a nice boost this spring, thanks to a massive stimulus package. Consumers actually had more spending power in post-lockdown April, than they had in February. One-time stimulus checks and federal unemployment benefits helped lift April personal income 10.2% over February’s level. Ex-stimulus, personal income fell 9.1% over the same period. We think it is most likely we get another round of stimulus by Christmas, probably in the neighborhood of $1 trillion. If not, it will be at the top of President-elect Biden’s agenda for February. The economic recovery is facing a significant headwind with current COVID-19 trends, so the sooner the better.
Source: BEA, Haver, Ivy Investments. Dates shown are January 2018 through September 2020. The chart shows annual personal income reflecting month-to-month percent changes. This chart is being provided as a general source of information for education purposes only, and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy.