Investors kept a bullish view on emerging markets in 2017, resulting in strong positive returns for
those equities at levels that outperformed developed markets. But do those gains indicate a turning
point? We believe corporate revenue and earnings growth is likely to continue in most key emerging
market sectors in 2018 and provide ongoing investment potential.
After a year of solid gains, the valuation levels of emerging
market equities have become a question for many investors.
While valuations levels did increase modestly, returns in
2017 in those equities were driven primarily by strong
earnings revisions and earnings growth.
The estimated price/earnings (P/E) ratio for companies across
emerging markets put stock prices at about 12 times (12x) the
level of earnings per share as 2017 began. Despite the strong
performance in 2017, consensus estimates still put the P/E at
only 12.5x based on strong earnings estimates. As we entered
2018, emerging markets were trading at about two-thirds the
level of developed markets, as shown in the chart below.
The weak U.S. dollar for most of 2017 also was a tailwind
for emerging markets returns. The accompanying strength
in commodity and energy prices helped the economies of
resource-rich countries like Russia and Brazil. We think
these trends will continue in 2018. The synchronized global
recovery in economic activity and trade also is likely to provide
support for emerging market currencies and commodity prices.
Emerging market valuations VS. Developed markets still below historical average
Source: Morningstar Direct; relative price/earnings (P/E) ratio, January 2006-December 2017, of MSCI
Emerging Market Index for emerging markets and S&P 500 Index for developed markets. It is not
possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Focus on key sectors
The Fund ended 2017 with a very different weighting in key
sectors compared with the start of the year. The changes in
weightings are detailed in the chart on the next page.
The year began with a significant overweight in technology,
which was about one-quarter of the index at that time, and
an underweight in financials, materials and energy. By the
end of the year, we had reduced the overweight in technology
and increased positions in financials, materials and energy,
as we saw increased economic strength across the globe.
In our view, supply-side reform originating in China to
curb pollution and decrease financial risk also provided a
favorable backdrop for commodity prices.
The technology situation in emerging markets was similar to
that of the U.S., where the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon,
Apple, Netflix and Google) and the technology sector led the
market. The Fund’s overweight position includes key holdings
in internet-related stocks, semiconductors and smartphone
component companies in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Russia
and in Latin America.
We anticipate an important political year in 2018, and
the potential changes may give rise to challenges and
opportunities across market sectors. Elections are scheduled
in several emerging market countries, including Brazil,
Mexico, India and Russia. We already have seen major
changes in South Africa, where long time President Jacob
Zuma recently resigned under pressure and was replaced as
president by Cyril Ramaphosa.
We think our increased focus on financials is likely to
benefit from higher rates and an improving business
cycle. Technology and innovation continue to be areas
of focus for the Fund, with electric vehicles, biosimilars
(biological medical products that are demonstrated to be
interchangeable with an approved product) and financial
technology becoming important secular themes.
Fund allocations VS. Benchmark index reflect changing focus on key market sectors
Source: FactSet; Ivy Emerging Markets Equity Fund allocations to key sectors in December 2016 and December 2017, compared to the allocations in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It is not possible to
invest directly in an index.
Role of BRIC countries
In managing the Fund, we have an ongoing focus on the BRIC
countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — and have
overweight positions in those countries compared with the
benchmark index. Several factors drive our investment views on
China is the Fund’s biggest overweight and is a major part of the
benchmark. The economy in China, which started improving
in 2016, remains strong and the Fund had some benefit from
exposure to the property market, financial services, domestic
consumption in consumer staples and autos. China also has
begun reducing excess capacity in steel, cement and coal,
and we believe there are opportunities for greater exposure to
commodities. The Fund invests in names globally because these
basically are global commodities. If China — which is both a
major consumer and producer of commodities — is restricting
utilization, we believe there will be opportunities for growth
that can extend to supporting industries and other commodity producing
The Chinese Communist Party in late 2017 held a People’s
Congress — which it does every five years — where it named
the membership of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee
and announced its latest five-year plan. President Xi Jinping
remained in office and strengthened his position. The current
five-year plan shows China’s intent to be a powerhouse in
artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, industrial automation,
health care innovation, new materials, alternative energy
technology and environmental controls.
Both Brazil and Russia exited severe recessions last year, and
equity valuations remain at low levels. The Fund is about 5%
overweight in each, with sector overweights in those markets in
financial services and energy. In addition, the Fund invests in
some of the leading internet platforms in those countries.
We have maintained an overweight to India in the Fund. We
think structural reforms there will be challenging in the near
term, and India is dealing with two major changes instituted by
Prime Minister Narendra Modi: the demonetization program
and the introduction of the goods and services tax. We think
these represent two key changes targeted at formalizing India’s
economy and decreasing the associated frictions and corruption
in the country.
Our key sector overweight in India is in financials, which we think
can benefit from increased penetration of financial services and
an improving credit cycle. We also are able to identify what we
consider to be attractive stocks in that sector with differentiated
earnings power, strong competitive positions and management
teams that we think can create shareholder value.
We also continue to find what we believe are attractive companies
that serve “new economy” themes. These include those involved
in the internet, research and production of biosimilars and those
serving the growing middle class of consumers in areas such as
education, travel, entertainment and real estate.
An eye on geopolitics
Elections in 2018 again are likely to be market factors that we will
watch closely in managing the Fund:
- The U.S. faces midterm elections that could change the
makeup and control of the House of Representatives.
- In Russia, a presidential election in March will almost
certainly keep President Vladimir Putin in office. However,
many will be watching the voter turnout as a test of the
popularity of many of his economic programs and policies.
- A presidential election is scheduled at midyear in Mexico,
which is in renewed negotiations with the U.S. and Canada
about the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA). If those negotiations still are under way, a new
president might have different views on what NAFTA
should look like from Mexico’s perspective.
- Brazil will hold elections in October, including for its
President. After years of scandal trials and the impeachment
of a sitting president, many investors are hoping for a new
president that can lead Brazil back to economic strength.
A selective, active approach
There is a tendency among many investors to think of emerging
markets as a single potential investment option — which can
lead to allocations that are out of sync with the situation in each
country. While emerging markets collectively represent about
80% of the world’s population and land mass, we think it is
important to remember that there are many variations among
individual countries. We reiterate our belief that it is critical to
analyze each country’s fundamentals and idiosyncratic risks,
and to analyze it sector by sector in order to make an investment
decision. Given the variations and volatility of individual markets,
we believe the consistent application of our active investment
process is the best way to invest in equities in these markets.
||FIVE FORCES DRIVING EMERGING MARKETS NOW
|Emerging market equity valuations trading
at significant discount, and below historical
averages, to developed markets.
|Importing countries are benefitting from
“lower-for-longer” energy price scenario and
lower relative input cost; range-bound prices
have reduced volatility and offered some
downside protection for exporting countries.
|Many leading technology companies are
based in emerging markets, especially
in Asia; cover wide spectrum, including
e-commerce, technology related to visual
recognition, security systems, advanced driver
assistance systems, self-driving cars, gaming,
smartphones, virtual reality, digital medical
imaging and more.
|Elections are scheduled in the U.S., Russia,
Mexico, Brazil, plus tensions continue on
Korean Peninsula and in Middle East; South
Africa has a new president after the sitting
president resigned; political reform is a key
driver for growth and market recoveries,
and may offer selected emerging market
|Global trade among emerging markets remains
strong and recent U.S. tax reform likely to be
positive for emerging markets; missteps by
U.S. administration could result in geopolitical
turmoil, increasing volatility.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The opinions expressed are those of the Fund’s managers and are not meant as investment advice or to predict or project the future performance of any investment product. The opinions are current through February 2018, are subject to change at any time based on market and other current conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. This commentary is being provided as a general source of information and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific objectives, financial needs, risk tolerance and time horizon.
Risk factors: The value of the Fund's shares will change, and you could lose money on your investment. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. International investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuations, political or economic conditions affecting the foreign country, and differences in accounting standards and foreign regulations. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. These and other risks are more fully described in the Fund's prospectus. Not all funds or fund classes may be offered at all broker/ dealers.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an unmanaged index comprised of securities that represent large and mid-cap companies within emerging market countries. The S&P 500 Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that measures the large-cap U.S. equity market. The index includes 500 of the top companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.