2018 Midyear Global Outlook
What’s in store for the second half of 2018? Get the Ivy Investments team’s views in our Global Midyear Outlook.
Investors who have focused this year on short-term issues affecting only a few emerging markets may be missing a larger picture. We believe emerging markets – while volatile at times – will continue to offer potential opportunities in the foreseeable future, as the economic backdrop from the start of 2018 is still present today.
The Fund’s recent performance reflected macro events during the second quarter and mainly reflected the negative impact of:
We are monitoring a number of issues, including the trade tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, the yield on U.S. Treasuries and the impact on the U.S. dollar’s value versus emerging market currencies, the price of oil for its impact on both producing and consuming countries, and the outcome of elections scheduled in 2018 in Turkey, Mexico and Brazil, which all have uncertain outcomes and the potential for market disruption.
We expect steady global growth for the remainder of 2018, which we believe will provide opportunities for exporting countries across the emerging markets. We also believe emerging market equity valuations remain attractive. The estimated price/earnings (P/E) ratio for companies across emerging markets puts stock prices at about 12 times their projected earnings per share (EPS), compared with developed market equity prices at about 18 times projected EPS.
Many emerging market economies are becoming less dependent on commodities – and thus less cyclical – and more driven by secular themes based on “new economy” consumption levels, particularly in technology and financial sectors. For comparison, the emerging markets index 10 years ago was about 33% in energy and commodities. Those areas comprise about 14% of the index now. Technology was about 11% of the index 10 years ago, but now represents more than 30%. We would argue that there are only two places to get exposure to leading internet and technology companies: Silicon Valley and Emerging Asia, where there are dominant companies like Alibaba, Tencent and Samsung.
Despite the public rhetoric surrounding trade, we believe world leaders eventually will not embark on mutually destructive paths. Case in point: The U.S.-North Korea negotiations, in which the world has moved from the mutual threats of nuclear war only a few months ago to the historic meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. As long as the world can avoid the threat of trade wars, we believe emerging markets across Asia will have solid economic growth rates and benefit from a demographic tailwind of their larger Millennial generation populations. It has been estimated that more than 50% of the world's Millennials are in Asia, and that growing consumer culture offers potential for companies providing goods and services that they want now.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The opinions expressed are those of the Fund’s managers and are not meant as investment advice or to predict or project the future performance of any investment product. The opinions are subject to change at any time based on market and other current conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. This commentary is being provided as a general source of information and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific objectives, financial needs, risk tolerance and time horizon.
Top 10 Equity Holdings as a percent of net assets as of 05/31/2018: Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., 6.28%; Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR, 5.68%; Tencent Holdings Ltd., 4.50%; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., 4.12%; POSCO, 2.47%; Sunny Optical Technology (Group) Co. Ltd., 2.46%; Vale S.A., 2.29%; Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd., H Shares, 2.23%; Galaxy Entertainment Group, 2.08%; Sberbank of Russia PJSC ADR, 1.98%.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an unmanaged index comprised of securities that represent large and mid-cap companies within emerging market countries. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Risk factors: The value of the Fund's shares will change, and you could lose money on your investment. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. International investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuations, political or economic conditions affecting the foreign country, and differences in accounting standards and foreign regulations. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. These and other risks are more fully described in the Fund's prospectus. Not all funds or fund classes may be offered at all broker/ dealers.