Q4 Outlook: Entering the final stretch
The Ivy Investments team discusses the global economy outlook as we head into the close of 2018.
Emerging markets continue to feel the impact of uncertainty about international trade and tariffs, a strong U.S. dollar, sanctions on Russia and more. Most of these headwinds are idiosyncratic risks and they have led to negative year-to-date returns in the benchmark emerging markets index. We believe the fundamental basis for investing in emerging markets is intact; however, until there is more clarity around the risks, market volatility is likely to persist.
Emerging markets gained nearly 35% in 2017, based on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and started 2018 with a gain of more than 8% in January. However, as discussions of tariffs, Russia sanctions and the Brazilian trucker strike littered the headlines early in the year, the market began to peel back those gains and was down more than 9% through Sept. 14, 2018.
Investor sentiment in general about emerging markets still is under pressure, given these headline risks and in the face of the strong U.S. dollar. It’s worth noting that there has been a wide dispersion of returns in emerging markets, especially when you look at the U.S. dollar returns versus the localcurrency returns. While many markets have had negative returns in terms of the dollar, a few of the local market returns have been positive.
It does not appear that there is a systemic or fundamental deterioration in many of these markets. As shown in the chart below, the majority of the pain has been from currencies. In aggregate, U.S investors have seen a drag of about 5.5% on returns from the weakening of emerging market currencies.
country returns based on
MSCI Emerging Markets Index,
U.S. dollar and local currency.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Fund had a strong 2017 and outpaced both peers and the index. However, it has trailed the benchmark this year. The Fund began 2018 with overweight allocations to China, Russia and Brazil – each of which has since been hit by headline risk or the strength of the U.S. dollar.
The largest relative detractors to performance on a year-to-date basis have been:
We have steadily reduced the Fund’s overweight position relative to the benchmark index in shares broadly related to China – including Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and the Taiwan market – and now have an underweight to these countries in aggregate. We still believe that China’s economy can show solid growth while trade negotiations with the U.S. continue, but we want to see more clarity around the situation before we increase our allocation to the region.
India is the Fund’s largest overweight. The market in India has held up well in our view, as it largely is sheltered from global trade disputes. We believe India’s greatest challenges stem from the potential for further increases in energy prices and the uncertainty about next year’s elections there.
Russia is the Fund’s second-largest overweight. We believe the country’s fiscal position remains strong, supported by high energy prices. The largest headwind to performance in Russia is the risk of additional economic sanctions. For example, the Trump administration recently issued an executive order that could impose sanctions on any country that interferes with U.S. elections – a topic that already includes Russia.
Brazil is another overweight for the Fund. Despite the headline risk around the elections occurring there next month, we feel that the valuations and the risk/reward tradeoff is a positive for the allocation.
Despite concerns about some emerging markets, we think valuations and earnings growth overall remain attractive and we still believe there are potential opportunities for investors who can weather occasional volatility. The largest individual security overweight positions in the Fund now are in high-conviction stocks related to internet technology, energy and materials.
It has been particularly difficult in recent months to predict how far the Trump administration will go in its attempts to improve trade terms for the U.S. with China, partners in the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union. Resolution of the NAFTA discussions appear to be nearing completion, which may allow for a more focused effort on tackling the trade dispute with China. However, the visibility of the trade disputes may affect U.S. midterm elections and further cloud the timing of any progress on a deal with Beijing.
We recognize that a full-blown U.S. trade war with China and the rest of the world would damage global growth and global trade, with a significant impact on emerging market countries. But we still do not think that scenario is likely since the U.S. also benefits from the steadily growing global economy.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The opinions expressed are those of the Fund’s managers and are not meant as investment advice or to predict or project the future performance of any investment product. The opinions are subject to change at any time based on market and other current conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. This commentary is being provided as a general source of information and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific objectives, financial needs, risk tolerance and time horizon.
Risk factors: The value of the Fund’s shares will change, and you could lose money on your investment. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. International investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuations, political or economic conditions affecting the foreign country, and differences in accounting standards and foreign regulations. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. These and other risks are more fully described in the Fund’s prospectus. Not all funds or fund classes may be offered at all broker/ dealers.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an unmanaged index comprised of securities that represent large- and mid-capitalization companies within emerging market countries. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.