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Ivy Investments is now a part of Macquarie Asset Management
As of April 30, 2021, Ivy Investment Management Company is now part of Macquarie Asset Management. Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) provides specialist investment solutions to clients across a range of capabilities including infrastructure & renewables, real estate, agriculture, transportation finance, private credit, equities, fixed income, and multi-asset solutions.
Quarterly Commentary
Ivy Securian Real Estate Securities Fund
03.31.21
Market Sector Update
The big story in the first quarter was a continued shift to strategies that are poised to capitalize on better growth
this year. This propelled strong returns for previous laggards like small caps, cyclical stocks and value strategies. Real
estate stocks were no different, with an elongation of the rotation that started in December 2020 as a result of the
Pfizer vaccine announcement. Simply put, last year’s losers continue to be the winners so far this year. Hotels and
retail, last year’s laggards, widely outstripped real estate investment trust (REIT) returns.
The economy built on fourth quarter momentum and accelerated early this year. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and
President Joe Biden’s administration are doubling down on policy support to make sure the economy takes off. New
relief measures and a clearer path to lifting restrictions laid the foundation for the fastest expected growth in decades.
Despite the forecast for eye-popping growth, the Fed is steadfast in its commitment to keep a lid on rates until there
is clear evidence of full employment and realized inflation. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
predict this process will take at least two years. Policymakers expect easy money to spur investment and better
productivity, increasing sustainable growth. This risks an overshoot, but Fed officials are confident in their ability to
slow the economy with available monetary tools if needed.
While longer interest rates have risen on faster growth, the current movement isn’t alarming. Long-term rates rose
while short rates remained anchored near zero, in line with Fed guidance. Long-term expectations remain in check,
near the Fed’s 2% target. The recent increase in rates isn’t enough to slow the economy and reflects expectations for
a return to normal growth and inflation in years to come.
Portfolio Strategy
Despite a quarter characterized by deep-value, smaller-cap stocks being in favor, the Fund outperformed the FTSE
NAREIT Equity REIT Index. We found quality names trading at significant discounts, which offset the drag from the
Fund’s otherwise larger cap, growth-biased profile. Favorable decisions were a move to overweight senior housing,
retail and hotel owners. The most significant drags on performance came from not owning last year’s laggards, such
as New York City office owners and Net Lease companies who own paper document storage facilities, movie theaters
and outdoor billboards. Five companies out of the index that fall into this esoteric group caused a 0.5% drag on
performance.
Office stocks were the biggest detractors to performance in the quarter. Many office stocks returned 15%-25%.
Investors flocked to beaten up office names and have come to embrace the notion that office usage isn’t dead. We
agree that offices are not obsolete but believe that work-from-home will alter office demand and operating costs in
significant ways.
With vaccinations beginning, investors could finally estimate a trough in senior housing occupancies and look forward
to resumed earnings growth. With occupancies hovering in the high-70% to low-80%, these companies have an
attractive runway for future earnings growth.
Retail REITs were a top performer with the mall and shopping center subsectors leading. While tenant health took a
step back in 2020, valuation in the space was very compelling entering the quarter and increasing optimism led to
outperformance in the quarter. The portfolio had a substantial overweight to the retail space entering the period, but
valuations became less compelling as the quarter progressed and we have now shifted to an underweight position for
malls and shopping centers.
Hotel REITs were one of the largest beneficiaries of vaccine rollouts and economic reopening. A combination of an
overweight to the sector and favorable stock selection aided relative performance in the quarter. We remain
overweight to the space.
Datacenter and tower REITs, which were some of the top performers in 2020, lagged the broader REIT sector. Neither
sector contributed significantly to relative performance, but as valuations became more compelling in the period, the
Fund shifted to an overweight by the end of the quarter. We continue to see strong growth prospects for this space.
Outlook
We must consider whether the beneficiaries of the reopening have run too far, too fast. We believe some have and
we made several portfolio changes to reflect our conviction that high quality, larger cap growth stocks will again be
favored as we move through the balance of the year.
Recent fiscal and monetary policies are unprecedented. The levels of fiscal support and easy money already in place
are each considerable. Together, these policies – and proposed programs - are taking us into the unknown. The
economy is poised for takeoff with plenty of liquidity as an accelerant. We’re likely to exceed pre-pandemic trend
growth by the end of this year, and new businesses are forming at a rapid pace. For now, the potential benefits to the
economy, and more importantly, to people, seem to outweigh the risks. But it would be imprudent to think that there
isn’t a potential downside as well.
While it appears a real estate recovery has begun alongside the economic recovery, we doubt all property types
will return to pre-pandemic cash flow levels in lockstep. Those with short duration lease profiles such as apartments,
single family rentals, and self-storage should fare well in a rising inflation environment. Others, such as retail and hotels
may take years before they reach 2019 earnings.
The pandemic accelerated trends that were already in place and put a spotlight on those with strong and bleak
futures. Work-from-home is here to stay, and demand for office space and business travel will likely face a long
recovery; as will bricks and mortar retail. Meanwhile, we believe strongly in “new economy” sectors such as data
centers and cell towers. Although we selectively exploited several obvious public market pricing anomalies, we have
largely avoided companies that we believe are more exposed to these post-pandemic trends. We have continued to
focus the portfolio’s positioning to take advantage of those we believe will recover and thrive in a post-COVID-19
world.
REIT stocks remain attractively valued, particularly against the backdrop of Fed actions, improving economic growth,
and forever low interest rates. Indeed, one could characterize an environment where the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
remains range-bound, coupled with steadily improving economic growth as nirvana for real estate. New vaccine-resistant
strains, and persistently higher 10-year U.S. Treasury rates represent two primary risks that could cause the
group to deliver uninspiring returns again in 2021.
The opinions expressed are those of the Fund’s managers and are not meant as investment advice or to predict or project the future performance of any investment product. The opinions are current through March 31, 2021, are subject to change at any time based on market and other current conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. This commentary is being provided as a general source of information and is not
intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific objectives, financial
needs, risk tolerance and time horizon. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
All information is based on Class I shares.
The FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs Index is designed to present investors with a comprehensive family of REIT performance indexes that spans the commercial real estate space across the U.S. economy. The FTSE NAREIT
Equity REITs index contains all Equity REITs not designated as Timber REITs or Infrastructure REITs. The S&P 500 Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that measures the large-capitalization
U.S. equity market. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The impact of COVID-19, and other infectious illness outbreaks that may arise in the future, could adversely affect the economies of many nations or the entire global economy, individual issuers and capital markets
in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen. In addition, the impact of infectious illnesses in emerging market countries may be greater due to generally less established healthcare systems. Public health crises
caused by the COVID-19 outbreak may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks in certain countries or globally. The duration of the COVID-19 outbreak and its effects cannot be determined
with certainty.
Risk factors: The value of the Fund's shares will change, and you could lose money on your investment. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Investment risks associated with investing in real estate securities, in addition to other risks, include rental income fluctuation, depreciation, property tax value
changes and differences in real estate market values. Because the Fund invests more than 25% of its total assets in the real estate industry, the Fund may be more susceptible to a single economic, regulatory, or
technical occurrence than a fund that does not concentrate its investments in this industry. These and other risks are more fully described in the fund's prospectus. Not all funds or fund classes may be offered at all
broker/ dealers.
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Ivy offers model delivery for nine equity strategies
Nine strategies are available in a model-delivery format, to be available in SMA and UMA accounts, providing advisors and investors a new way to access Ivy’s strategies.
Ivy InvestEdSM 529 Plan
A flexible, tax-advantaged 529 plan that allows you to invest for future education goals.
Ivy Investments is now a part of Macquarie Asset Management
As of April 30, 2021, Ivy Investment Management Company is now part of Macquarie Asset Management. Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) provides specialist investment solutions to clients across a range of capabilities including infrastructure & renewables, real estate, agriculture, transportation finance, private credit, equities, fixed income, and multi-asset solutions.
Quarterly Commentary
Ivy Securian Real Estate Securities Fund
Market Sector Update
Portfolio Strategy
Outlook
The opinions expressed are those of the Fund’s managers and are not meant as investment advice or to predict or project the future performance of any investment product. The opinions are current through March 31, 2021, are subject to change at any time based on market and other current conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. This commentary is being provided as a general source of information and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific objectives, financial needs, risk tolerance and time horizon. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
All information is based on Class I shares.
The FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs Index is designed to present investors with a comprehensive family of REIT performance indexes that spans the commercial real estate space across the U.S. economy. The FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs index contains all Equity REITs not designated as Timber REITs or Infrastructure REITs. The S&P 500 Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that measures the large-capitalization U.S. equity market. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The impact of COVID-19, and other infectious illness outbreaks that may arise in the future, could adversely affect the economies of many nations or the entire global economy, individual issuers and capital markets in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen. In addition, the impact of infectious illnesses in emerging market countries may be greater due to generally less established healthcare systems. Public health crises caused by the COVID-19 outbreak may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks in certain countries or globally. The duration of the COVID-19 outbreak and its effects cannot be determined with certainty.
Risk factors: The value of the Fund's shares will change, and you could lose money on your investment. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Investment risks associated with investing in real estate securities, in addition to other risks, include rental income fluctuation, depreciation, property tax value changes and differences in real estate market values. Because the Fund invests more than 25% of its total assets in the real estate industry, the Fund may be more susceptible to a single economic, regulatory, or technical occurrence than a fund that does not concentrate its investments in this industry. These and other risks are more fully described in the fund's prospectus. Not all funds or fund classes may be offered at all broker/ dealers.