Consumption disruption in 2019?
The U.S. consumer has been a significant contributor to domestic economic growth in 2018. Will consumer consumption be hit by inflation in 2019?
We believe the U.S. dollar will have a softer edge in 2019 due to fewer rate hikes and slower relative domestic GDP growth, but still has the relative strength of the U.S. economy as a tailwind.
Source: Bloomberg; change in value of selected currencies vs. U.S. dollar for the period 12/29/17–12/18/18.
With fewer rate hikes and slower global GDP growth, we expect the U.S. dollar to have a softer edge in 2019. This will manifest itself in a more balanced performance for the dollar against other currencies, but we think it still will be supported by the relative strength of the U.S. economy.
We think major developed-market central banks will follow the Fed’s lead on their own interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that interest rates will remain at current levels into the second half of 2019. With the deposit rate currently at a negative 40 bps, we believe the ECB will begin raising rates in the third quarter, but don’t expect rates to approach zero until December 2019 or early 2020.
We believe the Bank of England will wait until there is a successful result to the Brexit negotiations before it raises interest rates, and we expect two rounds of rate hikes in 2019. Both a Brexit deal and higher rates would support the U.K. pound, which we believe is undervalued.
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The opinions expressed are those of Ivy Investment Management Company and are not meant as investment advice or to predict or project the future performance of any investment product. The opinions are current through December 2018, are subject to change at any time based on market and other current conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. This commentary is being provided as a general source of information and is not intended as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any specific security or to engage in any investment strategy. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific objectives, financial needs, risk tolerance and time horizon.